A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction or expectation that influences events in a way that directly or indirectly causes the belief or expectation to come true. Simply putting a label to someone or something can influence perception and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A self-fulfilling prophecy can have either positive or negative consequences. One negative self-fulfilling prophecy example is the nocebo effect; the placebo effect is a positive one.
Self-imposed prophecies are predictions that people make about their own behaviour or future that influence their behaviour and ultimately cause the prediction to come true. For example, a person who believes that they are bad at public speaking may avoid opportunities to speak in public. This reinforces their belief and makes it more likely that they will continue to struggle with public speaking in the future.
Other-imposed prophecies are predictions that people make about the behaviour or future of others that influence the behaviour of the person who made the prediction and ultimately cause the prediction to come true. For example, a teacher who believes that a student is incapable of succeeding may treat the student differently, leading the student to underperform and reinforce the teacher’s belief.
Historical Context
Self-fulfilling prophecies have been a topic of interest in sociology for decades. The concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy refers to a belief or prediction that becomes true because people act as if it is true.
The idea was first widely introduced by Robert K. Merton, a sociologist who studied the phenomenon in the 1940s. Merton coined the term In 1948 to describe “a false definition of the situation evoking a behaviour which makes the originally false conception come true.”
Robert K. Merton
Merton’s work on self-fulfilling prophecies was part of a larger effort to understand the relationship between social structure and individual behaviour. He argued that social structures can create conditions that lead people to behave in certain ways, which can then reinforce those structures.
Merton used the example of a bank run to illustrate the concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people believe that a bank is in trouble and rush to withdraw their money, the bank may actually fail because it cannot meet the demand for withdrawals. In this case, the belief that the bank is in trouble becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it leads to the bank’s failure.
Social Theory and Social Structure
Merton’s ideas about self-fulfilling prophecies were published in his book “Social Theory and Social Structure” in 1949. The book is considered a classic in the field of sociology and is still widely read today.
In “Social Theory and Social Structure,” Merton argued that social structures can have unintended consequences. He used the example of the Protestant work ethic to illustrate this point.
The Protestant work ethic is the idea that hard work and thrift are virtues that lead to success. Merton argued that this idea became a self-fulfilling prophecy in the United States because it led to the development of a capitalist economy that rewarded hard work and thrift.
Overall, Merton’s work on self-fulfilling prophecies has had a significant impact on the field of sociology. His ideas have been used to explain a wide range of phenomena, from the success of certain social movements to the failure of certain policies.
While Merton’s example focuses on self-fulfilling prophecies within a community, they also apply to individuals, as people frequently conform to the expectations of others. Based on the experiments of Robert Resenthal and Lenore Jacobson, this is also known as the Pygmalion effect, in which teachers were told that a random selection of students would perform particularly well; those children exhibited a large boost in test scores at the conclusion of the year.
Positive and Negative Thinking
Self-fulfilling prophecies have a strong psychological component. The concept is rooted in the belief that people’s beliefs and expectations about the outcome of a situation can influence their behaviour and actions in a way that makes the expected outcome more likely to occur.
Positive thinking can be a powerful tool in achieving success. People who believe that they can achieve their goals and maintain a positive attitude are more likely to take action toward achieving those goals.
In contrast, negative thinking can be a self-fulfilling prophecy in the opposite direction. If an individual believes that they will fail, they may not even try, or they may not put in the necessary effort to succeed.
Even if the person is objectively capable of dealing with the problem, fear of failure causes results to deteriorate. Fear of falling, for example, causes greater falls in the elderly.
Examples of Self-fulfilling Prophecies
Self-fulfilling prophecies can have a significant impact on various aspects of life. Here are some of the effects of self-fulfilling prophecies in different scenarios.
Self-fulfilling prophecies can have a profound impact on education. Teachers’ expectations of their students can significantly impact their performance. If teachers have high expectations of their students, they are more likely to perform well. On the other hand, if teachers have low expectations of their students, they are more likely to underperform.
Studies have shown that teachers’ expectations can impact students’ academic achievement, motivation, and self-esteem. For instance, the Pygmalion in the Classroom study showed that when teachers were informed that certain students were expected to perform well, they did in fact perform better.
The study suggests that other-imposed expectations imposed on students by teachers are internalized by the students and become part of their self-concept, and they act in accordance with their internal beliefs about themselves. The lack of replication for this particular study has led some to question its conclusions.
According to a meta-analysis by sociologist Stephen W. Raudenbush, the length of time teachers spend getting to know their students before inducing IQ-related expectancies in them lessens the effect’s magnitude. Raudenbush found that the effect was generally supported, but it is significantly stronger when expectancy is induced at the start of the school year. Predictability induction has almost no effect on teachers who have known their students for longer than two weeks before.
Social Interactions
Self-fulfilling prophecies can also impact social interactions. If someone expects to be rejected or disliked, they may behave in a way that makes that expectation a reality. For instance, if someone believes that they are not likable, they may avoid social situations, which can lead to social isolation and further reinforce their belief.
On the other hand, if someone has positive expectations of their social interactions, they may behave in a way that makes those expectations a reality. For example, if someone believes that they are likable, they may be more outgoing and friendly, which can lead to more positive social interactions.
According to a Columbia University study, relationships can be affected by self-fulfilling prophecies. This means that a partner’s beliefs can shape their relationship’s chances of ending or staying intact.
The study investigated the inner workings of self-fulfilling prophecies in romantic relationships of people with high rejection sensitivity, which was defined as “the disposition to anxiously anticipate, readily perceive, and overreact to rejection.”
In contrast to men’s pessimism about the prospects of their relationships, the study indicated that women were more likely to feel rejection sensitivity. Women who are sensitive to rejection “may be more likely to behave in ways that exacerbate conflicts,” which could result in actions that “erode their partners’ relationship satisfaction and commitment.”
Influences on Mental Health
Negative thoughts and untrue self-statements about one’s abilities or worth are common in many people diagnosed with depression. Individuals with depression may experience a self-fulfilling prophecy when they believe that they will never recover from their illness.
This belief can lead to feelings of hopelessness and helplessness, which can in turn worsen their symptoms and make it more difficult for them to recover. This effect can be compounded if the individual also believes that their depression is a permanent and unchangeable part of their identity.
Individuals with anxiety may experience a self-fulfilling prophecy when they believe that they will fail in a particular situation, such as a job interview or a social event. This belief can lead to heightened anxiety and stress, which can, in turn, make it more difficult for them to perform well in that situation. This effect can be compounded if the individual also believes that their anxiety is a permanent and unchangeable part of their identity.
Other Consequences
Self-fulfilling prophecies can lead to discrimination, where individuals are treated unfairly based on preconceived notions and stereotypes. For example, if a teacher assumes that a student from a particular racial or ethnic group will perform poorly in school, they may unconsciously treat that student differently, which can ultimately lead to the student performing poorly.
Similarly, in the workplace, if a manager assumes that an employee from a particular social or economic background is not capable of performing a certain task, they may unconsciously give that employee fewer opportunities to learn and grow, which can ultimately lead to the employee not performing as well as they could.
Stigmatized Social Groups
Self-fulfilling prophecies can also have implications for stigmatized social groups, such as individuals with disabilities or members of the LGBTQ+ community. If society as a whole assumes that individuals with disabilities are not capable of achieving the same things as able-bodied individuals, they may unconsciously limit their opportunities and resources, which can ultimately lead to the individuals not achieving their full potential.
Similarly, if society assumes that individuals who identify as LGBTQ+ are not capable of being successful in certain careers or industries, they may unconsciously limit their opportunities and resources, which can ultimately lead to the individuals not achieving their full potential.
Clinical Trials
In clinical trials, the self-fulfilling prophecy effect can significantly impact the study’s outcome. For example, if the researchers conducting the study believe that a particular treatment will be effective, they may unintentionally communicate this belief to the participants, who may then exhibit a placebo effect. This can lead to an overestimation of the treatment’s effectiveness.
Similarly, if the researchers believe a particular treatment will be ineffective, they may communicate this belief to the participants, who may exhibit a nocebo effect. This can lead to an underestimation of the treatment’s effectiveness.
One study that illustrates the self-fulfilling prophecy effect in clinical trials is the study of the anti-depressant drug Prozac. In this study, the researchers found that the placebo effect was stronger than the effect of the drug itself. This was due in part to the fact that the researchers conducting the study believed that Prozac would be effective and communicated this belief to the participants.
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Top Image credit: Magic Mirror, lithograph (1946) by Maurits Cornelis Escher. Photo courtesy Pedro Ribeiro Simões CC-BY