The false consensus effect is a well-known cognitive bias in social psychology, where individuals tend to overestimate the extent to which their opinions, beliefs, and behaviors are shared by others. It is categorized as an egocentric bias because it results from people’s tendency to project their own beliefs onto others.
One of the factors contributing to the false consensus effect is the availability heuristic. This mental shortcut causes individuals to base their judgments on information that readily comes to mind, often resulting in the overestimation of consensus. People are more likely to interact with those who share similar beliefs, thus reinforcing the perceived popularity of their own opinions.
Another factor is the self-enhancement motive. People generally have a desire to maintain a positive self-concept, and believing that their opinions are widely shared can be self-affirming. By projecting their beliefs onto others, they feel more confident and justified in their views.
The false consensus effect is not limited to a single domain, as it has been observed across various contexts, such as politics, moral judgments, and risk assessments. For instance, research done in 1977 by Ross, Greene and House demonstrates that individuals with strong beliefs on a political issue are likely to overestimate the support for their stance.
False Consensus Bias Cognitive Roots
The false consensus effect has its foundation in a number of cognitive and motivational processes. One such cognitive mechanism is the egocentric bias, which leads individuals to overestimate the extent to which others share their own beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. This bias contributes to the formation of false consensus by causing people to project their own opinions onto those around them.
Motivation also plays a significant role in the development of false consensus. One key aspect of this is the tendency for individuals to engage in motivated reasoning. This refers to the process by which people selectively gather, interpret, and remember information in a way that supports their preexisting beliefs and desires.
In the case of false consensus, motivated reasoning may lead individuals to seek out and remember evidence that validates their own opinions and reinforces the idea that others must share those same views.
Another factor contributing to the false consensus effect is the human need for self-esteem. Maintaining a positive self-image is an essential psychological drive, and individuals are often motivated to find ways to bolster their self-esteem.
This can include seeking out affirmation and validation in the form of social consensus. By believing that their attitudes, behaviors, and beliefs are shared by a majority, individuals can feel reassured and justified in their opinions, which in turn, enhances their self-esteem.
Combining both cognitive and motivational roots provides a more comprehensive understanding of the false consensus effect. The interaction between egocentric bias, self-serving bias, the effectiveness of the availability heuristic, motivated reasoning, and the need for self-esteem can all culminate in individuals overestimating the extent of consensus for their own views.
Social Influences
Gilbert and Elizabeth Botvin, along with colleagues conducted a well-known study in 1992 on the impacts of the false-consensus effect within a specific adolescent group in order to establish whether students exhibit a higher level of false-consensus effect among their direct peers vs society at large. This experiment included 203 college students ranging in age from 18 to 25 (with an average age of 18.5).
Participants were given a questionnaire and asked to answer questions about a wide range of social issues. For each social subject, they were asked to express their feelings and estimate the percentage of their peers who would agree with them.
The findings revealed that the false-consensus effect was particularly widespread when participants described the rest of their college community; sixteen of the twenty issues examined prominently displayed the false-consensus effect. The study’s high levels of false-consensus effect can be linked to the group studied; because the participants were asked to compare themselves to a group of friends that they are frequently around (and regard as being similar to themselves), the levels of false-consensus effect increased.
Social media platforms, such as Facebook, have created new opportunities for the false consensus effect to take root. The algorithms employed on social media sites often generate a customized environment for each user, showcasing content aligned with their interests. Consequently, users may end up in an echo chamber, where they mainly encounter like-minded individuals, reinforcing their existing opinions and further amplifying the false consensus effect.
A study by Magdalena Wojcieszak and Vincent Price done in 2009 suggests the relationship between individual and communicative factors contributes to the false consensus effect. Having a heterogeneous social environment, along with a diverse discussion network, might help reduce the perception of false consensus.
Impact on Behavior and Decision-Making
One of the ways in which the false consensus effect impacts behavior is by reinforcing an individual’s confidence in their beliefs and choices. Since they perceive their opinions as widely shared, they may be less likely to question or reconsider them, potentially closing themselves off to alternative viewpoints or information.
This can be seen in psychologist Martin Coleman’s Emotion and the False Consensus Effect study, where researchers found that emotions play a role in shaping this cognitive phenomenon.
Situational Factors and Conflict
The degree to which this effect impacts behavior and decision-making can be influenced by various situational factors. These factors can either strengthen or weaken the influence of the bias on an individual’s judgments and actions. For example, according to the research on attitude importance and the false consensus effect (Fabrigar & Krosnick, 1995), the importance placed on a specific attitude has been found to regulate the magnitude of the false consensus effect.
Strikingly, situational factors can also lead to conflict when individuals with contrasting opinions interact. Since the false-consensus effect increases confidence in one’s beliefs, people may become more resistant to accepting opposing ideas or information. This resistance can escalate into conflict and make it difficult for individuals to reach a consensus or effectively navigate decision-making processes, as observed in the study on assessing false consensus effect in a consensus enhancing procedure (Squillante and Ventre, 2010).
Empirical Evidence and Case Studies
Lee Ross, the psychologist who first identified the false consensus effect, has conducted several studies exploring its implications. In his early research, Ross discovered that people frequently overestimated the extent to which others would share their beliefs or behaviors, leading to a biased perception of reality.
One of the most influential studies conducted by Ross demonstrated this bias by asking participants to rate the popularity of various social issues. Participants consistently overestimated the extent to which their own opinions were shared by others, creating a false sense of consensus. This effect has been replicated across a wide variety of domains, from political opinions to personal preferences.
Political Beliefs and Climate Change
The false consensus effect is particularly evident in the realm of political beliefs, including issues such as climate change. A study conducted by Robin Dawes and Matthew Mulford showed that individuals on both sides of the political spectrum tend to overestimate the extent to which their peers share their views on this topic.
For instance, those who believe in the urgent need to address climate change may assume that a significant majority of people share their concern, while those who are skeptical about climate change may similarly feel that their perspective is more widespread than it actually is.
This consensus bias has real-world implications, as it can contribute to polarization and hinder meaningful dialogue. By overestimating the prevalence of their own beliefs, individuals may feel more justified in their position, assume that others agree with them, and be less inclined to engage with opposing viewpoints.
References:
- Botvin, GJ; Botvin, EM; Baker, E; Dusenbury, L; Goldberg, CJ (1992). The false consensus effect: predicting adolescents’ tobacco use from normative expectations. Psychological Reports. 70 (1): 171–8. doi:10.2466/pr0.1992.70.1.171
- Bunker, C. J., & Varnum, M. E. W. (2021). How strong is the association between social media use and false consensus? Computers in Human Behavior, 125, Article 106947
- Coleman, M.D. Emotion and the False Consensus Effect. Curr Psychol 37, 58–64 (2018)
- Dawes, R. M., & Mulford, M. (1996). The false consensus effect and overconfidence: Flaws in judgment or flaws in how we study judgment? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(3), 201–211.
- Fabrigar, L. R., & Krosnick, J. A. (1995). Attitude Importance and the False Consensus Effect. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21(5), 468-479.
- Kitts, J. A. (2003). Egocentric Bias or Information Management? Selective Disclosure and the Social Roots of Norm Misperception. Social Psychology Quarterly, 66(3), 222–237.
- Marks, G., & Miller, N. (1987). Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect: An empirical and theoretical review. Psychological Bulletin, 102(1), 72–90
- Pronin, Emily; Puccio, Carolyn; Ross, Lee (2002). Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives. In Gilovich, Thomas; Griffin, Dale; Kahneman, Daniel (eds.). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9780521792608
- Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977). The false consensus effect: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13(3), 279–301
- Squillante, M. and Ventre, V. (2010), Assessing false consensus effect in a consensus enhancing procedure. Int. J. Intell. Syst., 25: 274-285
- Wojcieszak, Magdalena; Price, Vincent. (2009) What Underlies the False Consensus Effect? How Personal Opinion and Disagreement Affect Perception of Public Opinion, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Volume 21, Issue 1, Spring 2009, Pages 25–46